🛢️ Current Range
WTI crude is hovering at $62–$65. Stuck in neutral — but for how long?
💸 Rate Cuts & the Dollar
- Lower rates weaken the dollar
- Cheaper oil in foreign markets can lift demand
- Stronger economic activity = more energy use
📚 History Says…
- Dollar down, oil up — that pattern has played out before
- Stock market optimism often signals rising oil demand too
🌍 Supply Side
- OPEC+ is unwinding cuts carefully
- Russian refineries face attacks
- Saudi spare capacity looks thin
- Can the market really count on a supply flood?
📈 Inflation Watch
- Oil isn’t just fuel — it’s an inflation signal
- Higher prices raise transport & production costs across the board
- Powell once said every $10 bump in oil adds 0.2% to inflation, cuts 0.1% from GDP
❓ The Big Question
- Rate cuts + weak dollar + supply risks = bullish setup
- But has the market already priced this in?
- September 17’s Fed decision looms large
🔍 Bottom Line
Oil feels less like a barrel trade right now and more like a barometer of sentiment.
The next move may depend less on supply and demand — and more on what Powell says next.
Disclaimer: This post reflects publicly available information and should not be interpreted as a solicitation. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.